Was there ever a time where you wondered when you think everyone else is wrong but there really isn’t much of a statistical way readily available to you to prove the answer one way or another ?
I got this hand posted on a 5-dan’s blog that the people in #mahjong showed me. Both he and most of the channel said that making a pon at this time was a good idea. But I don’t know if this is flow or digital mahjong talking. I do think that there is a danger of something occuring that would not be beneficial to play, so I’ll work on proving it.
More on this next post.
Given a scenario in where:
a = Number of tiles that can improve hand
b = Number of “black tiles” unseen
and for the purposes of keeping things as simple as possible, we ignore pon, kan and chi…
I have a function setup that enables me to count that if a=22, b=117
when b eventually comes around after setting play in motion, the chances of a being:
22: 0.4294
21: 0.4107
20: 0.1391
19: 0.0197
18: 0.0010
And that by counting only cases where the 4th tile seen is of use, I count 0.188034188034 chance of having a tile that actually fits into your hand when you draw it. Then again, I’ve hit a trivial point that ==22/117. What I can do however is now measure what goes down which branch.